Sometimes we try to implement policies with a particular goal in mind. Often our policies are well intended, well thought out, and involve careful planning and consultation. But as they say, the best laid plans of mice and men oft go awry, and our efforts only serve make the problem worse. This is called the cobra effect. When you see it happening, it usually means that someone tried to solve a problem without knowing the root cause.
The cobra effect is a common occurrence in the history of the US military. Two recent examples include:
- Operation Cyclone - The US armed the mujahideen in Afghanistan to fight the Russians. Later some of those same men and weapons joined the Taliban and fought the very country which had armed and trained them.
- Operation Iraqi Freedom - This one is complicated, but it's hard to argue that it solved more problems than it created
But you don't have to confine yourself to military operations to see examples of this effect. You could look at something as innocuous as e-cigarettes. They are intended to reduce the incidence of tobacco smoking, which is well known to have harmful health effects. The stated objective was to allow people to satisfy their addiction to nicotine without putting them at a high risk for several types of cancers. But the result has been a tripling in the number of high school students trying e-cigarettes.
With this concept in mind, consider the problem of illegal immigration. The US has approached illegal immigration as a problem to be solved at the destination. Build a wall. Toughen up border security. Deport the illegal immigrants that get caught. Deport those illegal immigrants that commit crimes. And on, and on, and on. How's that working out?
Something is still creating a powerful enough motivation that immigrants are willing to risk robbery, abuse, human trafficking, incarceration, deportation, and death to take a chance at getting into the US. Trying to fight that at the US border is looking at the wrong end of the problem. The War on Drugs looked at the wrong end of the problem as well. Eliminating suppliers makes it harder and more dangerous to get the product*, but does not not reduce the demand for the product. Similarly, by making it harder and more dangerous to get to the US, you do not reduce the demand for getting to the US.
Any solution to this problem will have to consider the reason for the demand. I won't be so naive as to suggest that I can reduce the root cause of illegal immigration down to a blog post. But I will share an anecdote that might make you think twice before you repeat the hateful rhetoric so popular in current conservative circles.
I served a religious mission in Canada (which is a story for another post). I was specifically assigned to work with people that spoke Spanish. In Alberta. It would seem like a pretty small group, but you'd be surprised. There were two principal groups of spanish-speaking immigrants: Chileans and Central Americans.
The Chileans came Canada around the time the CIA was helping to overthrow a democratically elected Allende government. Having been in the country for forty years, and having slightly lighter complexions than some Central and South Americans, they now look and sound like Canadians. They are comfortable, well integrated into Canadian society, and difficult to identify.
The Central Americans, principally Guatemalans and Salvadorans, have arrived much more recently, and generally look different than Canadians. They have darker skin, do not yet have money, and are still living in tight-knit communities where they are among others with similar backgrounds and shared experiences. This group was easier to identify, and I had a chance to speak to many of its members about the experiences that led up to their immigration to Canada. I will relate two.
The first was told to us by Josúe (not his real name). He described riding on a bus through a large city and seeing a man in front of him who was sweaty and fidgety. He had a small trickle of blood running down from his temple, but the wound was covered by a hat. Someone pointed out the blood and asked him if he needed help, but he refused and tried to act as though nothing was wrong. But the bus driver was suspicious and alerted authorities. At the next bus stop, police arrested the man and found that, under his hat, he had a human hand with a gold watch and rings. The hand had been hacked off by a machete. He left the country soon after.
The second was told to us by a man from El Salvador named Guillermo (also not his real name). During the course of our visit, the conversation turned to his life in Central America and why he left. He pulled up his shirt and rolled up the legs of his pants and showed us a dozen scars about the size and shape of a cigar burn. He told us that he had a friend his age that had killed someone. He knew this kid pretty well, and became aware of his crime by accident. This kid's father was a person of some importance, and was able to make unfortunate things like that "go away". One night while he was sleeping, some men came into his house and kidnapped him. They took him outside of the city and shot him in the legs, arms, and torso. The location of the scars showed that this was not an execution, but more of a torture/murder. But he didn't die. He crawled to help several miles away and spent several months recuperating. Then he left the country.
Now expand your thoughts to include other sources of immigrants. Include the Caribbean, sub-Saharan Africa, southeast Asia, and the middle east. If there were not decent expectation of the rule of law, would you not do the same? If it were possible on any given day that your political views, personal religious beliefs, profession, or even your personal relationships could lead to your torture or murder, would you not do the same? If it were more likely than not on a given day that your wife, sister, or daughter could be raped (and if discovered, killed for her "crime"), would you not do the same?
I do not know the answer to the problem of illegal immigration, but I am certain that it is not to smugly declare that, "I'm here now, so it's ok to close the doors to all those other poor saps." There but for the grace of God go I. And so do you.
*This is yet another example of the cobra effect. The idea was to reduce the incidence of illegal drug use in the US. The effect to was dramatically heighten the violence around the international drug trade coming from Central America. The proposed solution didn't address the root cause of illegal drug use in the US, which is clearly not as simple as "because the drugs are available".
Something is still creating a powerful enough motivation that immigrants are willing to risk robbery, abuse, human trafficking, incarceration, deportation, and death to take a chance at getting into the US. Trying to fight that at the US border is looking at the wrong end of the problem. The War on Drugs looked at the wrong end of the problem as well. Eliminating suppliers makes it harder and more dangerous to get the product*, but does not not reduce the demand for the product. Similarly, by making it harder and more dangerous to get to the US, you do not reduce the demand for getting to the US.
Any solution to this problem will have to consider the reason for the demand. I won't be so naive as to suggest that I can reduce the root cause of illegal immigration down to a blog post. But I will share an anecdote that might make you think twice before you repeat the hateful rhetoric so popular in current conservative circles.
I served a religious mission in Canada (which is a story for another post). I was specifically assigned to work with people that spoke Spanish. In Alberta. It would seem like a pretty small group, but you'd be surprised. There were two principal groups of spanish-speaking immigrants: Chileans and Central Americans.
The Chileans came Canada around the time the CIA was helping to overthrow a democratically elected Allende government. Having been in the country for forty years, and having slightly lighter complexions than some Central and South Americans, they now look and sound like Canadians. They are comfortable, well integrated into Canadian society, and difficult to identify.
The Central Americans, principally Guatemalans and Salvadorans, have arrived much more recently, and generally look different than Canadians. They have darker skin, do not yet have money, and are still living in tight-knit communities where they are among others with similar backgrounds and shared experiences. This group was easier to identify, and I had a chance to speak to many of its members about the experiences that led up to their immigration to Canada. I will relate two.
The first was told to us by Josúe (not his real name). He described riding on a bus through a large city and seeing a man in front of him who was sweaty and fidgety. He had a small trickle of blood running down from his temple, but the wound was covered by a hat. Someone pointed out the blood and asked him if he needed help, but he refused and tried to act as though nothing was wrong. But the bus driver was suspicious and alerted authorities. At the next bus stop, police arrested the man and found that, under his hat, he had a human hand with a gold watch and rings. The hand had been hacked off by a machete. He left the country soon after.
The second was told to us by a man from El Salvador named Guillermo (also not his real name). During the course of our visit, the conversation turned to his life in Central America and why he left. He pulled up his shirt and rolled up the legs of his pants and showed us a dozen scars about the size and shape of a cigar burn. He told us that he had a friend his age that had killed someone. He knew this kid pretty well, and became aware of his crime by accident. This kid's father was a person of some importance, and was able to make unfortunate things like that "go away". One night while he was sleeping, some men came into his house and kidnapped him. They took him outside of the city and shot him in the legs, arms, and torso. The location of the scars showed that this was not an execution, but more of a torture/murder. But he didn't die. He crawled to help several miles away and spent several months recuperating. Then he left the country.
Now expand your thoughts to include other sources of immigrants. Include the Caribbean, sub-Saharan Africa, southeast Asia, and the middle east. If there were not decent expectation of the rule of law, would you not do the same? If it were possible on any given day that your political views, personal religious beliefs, profession, or even your personal relationships could lead to your torture or murder, would you not do the same? If it were more likely than not on a given day that your wife, sister, or daughter could be raped (and if discovered, killed for her "crime"), would you not do the same?
I do not know the answer to the problem of illegal immigration, but I am certain that it is not to smugly declare that, "I'm here now, so it's ok to close the doors to all those other poor saps." There but for the grace of God go I. And so do you.
*This is yet another example of the cobra effect. The idea was to reduce the incidence of illegal drug use in the US. The effect to was dramatically heighten the violence around the international drug trade coming from Central America. The proposed solution didn't address the root cause of illegal drug use in the US, which is clearly not as simple as "because the drugs are available".
